College Football Playoff: Washington Game Preview

Texas accomplished its preseason goal of a Big 12 title - everything else after this is gravy - except they have a real chance to win something even greater. Photo: Tony Gutierrez, Associated Press

Outlook

Here we go!!
College Football Playoff!
Longhorns. Huskies. Sugar Bowl. Texas will take on Washington in New Orleans on Monday night, the second game in the CFP Semifinal slate. The game will kickoff at 7:45pm CST in the Superdome. It will be televised on ESPN.

Texas faces Washington for the 2nd consecutive year in the postseason - this time bringing in a confident and experienced team. Photo: John Rivera, Getty Images

It’s been a long wait, but the day has finally arrived. The Horns will be on the biggest stage, in their first appearance in the College Football Playoff. After a 12-1 season which saw Texas easily defeat Oklahoma State for the Big 12 title, 49-21, the Longhorns are feeling pretty good coming into this matchup. It’s a matchup identical to last year’s bowl game, a defeat to Washington in the Alamo Bowl, 27-20. The Huskies have not lost in their last 20 contests dating back to last year - with much of the same core returning from last year’s team. Texas enters on a 7-game win streak but is a much different team than the one that fell to UW a year ago.

In what has been a season of revenge games for Texas - vanquishing 4 of the 5 teams that defeated the Horns a year ago, there is one more team on that list - Washington. Incredibly, Texas has the opportunity to finish off the Revenge Tour (even though I know Sark wouldn’t acknowledge it as such) with a win in the CFP Semifinal. That would launch Texas into the National Championship game against either Michigan or Alabama. Whatever happens, this season has been an amazing success for the Longhorns, one many fans hoped for but not one I think a lot of people predicted (I fell somewhere between 9-3 and 10-2 in preseason predictions, after all).

Collecting the Big 12 Championship trophy in Texas’ final year in the conference, defeating fellow CFP participant Alabama 34-24 in Tuscaloosa, going undefeated at home including a 57-7 thrashing of Texas Tech in the home finale are just a few of the highlights of the 2023 season. Can Texas add one more special memory to kick off 2024?

Jaydon Blue has turned into a major contributor for the Longhorns this season, and has clocked as the fastest player in college football. Image: Tony Gutierrez, Associated Press

Texas Offense vs. Washington Defense

The Longhorn offense comes into this matchup absolutely rolling - having averaged 53 points over the last 2 games. They really looked to have hit their stride against Oklahoma State, with Sark bringing out all the stops and reaching into the bag of tricks to great success. Additionally, we’ve seen great balance and contribution from a variety of players on this side of the ball. This includes but is certainly not limited to great performances by Jaydon Blue, Keilan Robinson, Ja’Tavion Sanders, Quinn Ewers, and Adonai Mitchell. Xavier Worthy also seems to be back to near full strength after an ankle injury in that Big 12 title game.

Texas has shown the ability to play balanced football this season, able to air it out when needed as well as sit on the ball and run down the opponent’s throat to close out games. Since the injury to Jonathon Brooks, the Longhorn running back room has stepped up immensely - it’s been a 4-headed monster with the rotation of CJ Baxter, Jaydon Blue, Keilan Robinson, and even Savion Red. Additionally, quarterback Quinn Ewers is coming off potentially is best game as a Longhorn - throwing for 452 yards and 4 TDs on 76% completions. If the Texas offense can continue that kind of play, there will be no stopping them in New Orleans.

The Washington defense is definitely the weaker side of the ball for the Huskies - allowing 23.6 points per game and ranking about 50th in the nation. They are also very weak in pass defense - ranking 122nd in that department. Look for Sark to open up the field and for Ewers to find his playmakers in space throughout the night. Still, it’s a defense that has done just enough to keep the Huskies undefeated, even if they have not held any opponent below 20 points in their last 6 games.

Advantage: Texas

Texas must lean on its strength up front against Washington. Locking down the run game and generating pressure on Michael Penix will be key. Photo: Tom Fox, Associated Press

Texas Defense vs. Washington Offense

It starts up front for the Longhorn defense, as it has all year. Led by senior T’Vondre Sweat and junior Byron Murphy, these guys have dominated all season. Texas ranks 4th in the nation in rush defense, best of the remaining playoff teams. With Washington ranking 100th in rushing offense, last of the CFP teams - this matchup heavily favors the Longhorns. I wouldn’t expect UW running back Dillon Johnson to break many long runs on the night.

The key to this game will be the Texas secondary going up against Michael Penix, Rome Odunze, and the Washington passing game. Penix, the Heisman runner-up, had an incredible year in leading UW to an undefeated season with over 4,000 passing yards, 33 TDs and 9 INTs. He has a pair of 1,000 yard receiving targets in Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk.

The Longhorns rank 96th in pass defense, allowing 240 yards per game through the air. It has been the main problem for Texas all season, giving up a few big leads largely through the opposing passing game. Penix certainly poses a difficult test for the Horns, and we will be looking for some of our younger secondary players to continue to step up, as well as relying on the defensive line to put pressure on the Huskies quarterback.

Advantage: None

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian has turned around a 5-7 Longhorn team 2 years ago into a College Football Playoff participant this season. Photo: Unknown

Coaching

Sark! What a job this man has done in turning around this Texas program and creating a national championship contender. If I had a vote for Coach of the Year, it would go to our guy. Making the leap from 5-7 in year 1 to 8-5 in year 2 and now 12-1 in year 3, it has been a steady but dramatic rise as Sark has established the culture and winning mentality of the program. Still hot on the recruiting trail with another top 5 class coming in for ‘24, it really does appear that Texas has its coach for the future. In Sark We Trust.

For Washington, head coach Kalen DeBoer sports a 103-11 record as a head coach, including the last 20 for the Huskies. Sheesh. Still, this is the first time he’s been on this big of a stage, so it remains to be seen whether he has what it takes to win at the very top of the sport and take UW to glory for the first time since 1991 - a 33-year long wait.

Let’s hope that wait continues for at least another year.

Advantage: Unclear

Prediction

This will be a classic shootout between two experienced teams familiar with each other, and two programs looking to get back to prominence after a long absence from the upper tiers of the sport. Look for both teams to find success throwing the ball, and a back-and-forth affair to continue late into the 4th quarter. The difference in the game will be Texas’ red zone defense, getting just enough stops to put the Horns on top and send the Burnt Orange and White into the Natty.

Texas 34, Washington 31

Hook ‘em