Georgia Game Preview

Texas has designs on 7-0 while the ‘dawgs are in an unfamiliar spoiler role. Photo: Sharp Football Analysis

Overview

Ohhhhh boy!

Now we’ve got the big one. The Longhorns welcome the Bulldogs for the second time this season, with this group hailing from Athens, GA. #1 Texas will take on #5 Georgia on Saturday at 6:30pm CDT in Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium at Campbell-Williams Field in Austin, Texas. The game will be televised on ABC (ESPN+).

It doesn’t get much better than this as a college football fan, and as a fan of the Texas Longhorns. It’s been a long time coming, but Texas faces off against a fellow top-5 opponent for the first time since 2006 in what was a 1 vs. 2 matchup with Ohio State. This time, it’s the Longhorns who are the #1 team, and the favorite to win the national title at this point in the season, in the eyes of many. The first half of the season has all been building to this moment, and it’s time for DKR to show out and the fans to give it everything they’ve got for this team to show the world what we’re all about down in Austin. I expect this to be one of the loudest crowds and possibly set the record for the highest attendance number the stadium has ever seen. The hype will be building up throughout the day, as ESPN’s College GameDay will set up camp in the early morning hours and the all day tailgating will commence thus forth.

How could you not be excited for this game??

Texas Offense vs. Georgia Defense

Starting with the sides of the ball that would be considered the “weaker” side for both teams at the moment, it’s a curious matchup that is a bit tricky for me to figure out.

The Horns’ offense has been humming along through the first 6 games of the season, scoring no fewer than 31 points in each game and ranking 7th nationally in points per game. While I am confident in the game plan from Sark, the strength of the offensive line, and the experience of Ewers to lead this team, there are a few areas that make me at least slightly cautious. For one, untimely penalties have been a drive killer in several instances and have taken away from what could really be a 50 PPG offense at this point. The next hesitation I have is the red zone offense. I’ve heard all year about how we’ve fixed those issues from last year, and yet I’ve seen those same issues pop up in each of the last 2 games for Texas, and I’m not sold that it won’t be an issue going forward. Can we just throw it up to Gunnar Helm when we get down there please?? Seriously he is such a matchup nightmare right now. Lastly I would say there has been a pattern developing of slow starts, whether that be from early turnovers or 3 and outs - and this really is not the game to let that happen again.

All that being said - I love where we’re at from an overall scheme and game management perspective. Texas seems to have the ability this season to wear a team down throughout the course of a game. I just wonder if that’s going to be possible against a roster with the talent that Georgia has, so I know that focus and execution will be required for all 60 minutes.

Now, as far as the Georgia defense goes…that’s one of the biggest question marks of this game. They’re certainly trending in the wrong direction, having surrendered 40 and 31 points to Alabama and…Mississippi State?? in 2 of their last 3 contests. Yet, they also stifled Clemson and gave up 12 to Kentucky and 13 to Auburn (ok, those 2 aren’t exactly all-world, but neither are Texas’ opponents thus far). We’re just not used to seeing a Kirby Smart defense giving up these kinds of numbers. 300 passing yards to Michael Van Buren? Seriously?? Was that just a look-ahead game or…? Despite what the numbers say, I feel like this Georgia defense will be ready to play, and we’ll see something more like the second half against Bama version of them.

Advantage: Texas

Texas Defense vs. Georgia Offense

The Longhorns are the best defense in college football, flat out. Ranking #1 in the nation in points per game allowed as well as yards per game allowed, they’ve been lights out in the first half of the season. There have been several stand outs on the defensive side for Texas - Anthony Hill, Colin Simmons, Andrew Mukuba, and Jahdae Barron to name a few. There are playmakers at every level of the defense. The result is that the Longhorn defense has only allowed 3 touchdowns all year - with all 3 of those occurring at a time of the game when Texas was >98% win probability according to ESPN Stats & Analytics. The only question that remains is whether or not our team has faced a “good” offense - the answer to that remains to be seen, but my thinking is that Georgia will certainly have the best offense we’ve faced yet this season.

Georgia currently ranks 34th in the nation in PPG, and are 10th in passing. They’ve struggled to get the run game going, ranking in the bottom half of all FBS teams in yards per game. Carson Beck will lead the Bulldogs in their attempt to knock off the #1 Longhorns, and we’ve seen him play well in some big spots this year. He led a huge comeback only to fall just short in Tuscaloosa, and also passed for 469 yards in a win over Mississippi State last week. He will be the best quarterback faced by the Longhorn defense by a WIDE margin. Some of those names include Davis Warren, General Booty, Michael Van Buren, and Michael Hawkins, Jr. So…yeah. The Texas secondary must come ready to play for 60 minutes.

Advantage: Texas

Coaching

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is one of the great coaches in the game right now, and his stock is only rising. After getting out to a 13-12 record in his first 2 seasons with Texas, he is now 18-2 since the start of the 2023 season, and has this program rolling not only on the field but in recruiting as well. I love Sark and I believe in him as a long term answer to bring Texas a lot of success and enjoyment for the fans. Let’s go Sark!

Meanwhile, Kirby Smart is one of the most accomplished active head coaches in college football, probably only rivaled by Dabo at Clemson. Georgia has a 99-17 record in 9 seasons under Kirby Smart. This game will actually break a 49-game streak of Georgia being the betting favorite. These guys have been the top dogs of college football for the last 4-5 years, there’s no denying that. This is a big game for Kirby, having missed out on the playoff last year and a loss here would put Georgia in serious jeopardy of missing the expanded playoff this year. However, he is still the guy to beat. 2 national championships speaks volumes.

Advantage: Georgia

Prediction

I have been back and forth on this one. Coming into the season, I predicted Georgia would be the first team to beat Texas. As the season has gone on, it’s clear Georgia isn’t as strong as we all thought, and Texas has exceeded expectations to this point. Despite what the numbers are saying and what we’ve seen on the field, I have a nagging feeling that this one will be a back and forth affair and come down to the wire. This is the best team Texas has faced by far, and I expect Georgia to push us to the brink. I have seen Texas play top-5 opponents in DKR a handful of times, and each time we have come up agonizingly short. So you could say I’ve got some scar tissue from those experiences, and that definitely contributes to my hesitation on picking this game. Ultimately though, my blood runs burnt orange, and I can’t pick against the Longhorns in our biggest home game in the last 15+ years. Let’s go Horns!!!

Score prediction: Texas 30, Georgia 27

Hook ‘em