Oklahoma Game Preview
Texas and Oklahoma take the field as undefeated teams for the first time since 2011. Photo: Unknown
Outlook
Red River.
Rivalry, Shootout, Showdown - whatever you want to call it, it’s here. The game that both fanbases have circled on their calendars year round. October 7th. The game will kick off at 11am CST and will be televised on ABC.
Texas comes in as the favorite, sitting at 5-0 following a 40-14 win over Kansas. The Longhorns are ranked #3 in the AP, their highest ranking in this game since 2009. Texas was ranked 3rd that year as well, and faced a #20 Oklahoma team that the Horns ended up beating 16-13.
OU also comes into the game 5-0, looking to prove that they are a much better team than a year ago. The number seem to suggest that as well. The Sooners rank 3rd in the nation in scoring offense and 5th in scoring defense. They also rank in the top 10 in yards per game offensively, and in the top 30 in ypg on defense. It is worth noting, however, that OU’s opponents have a combined record of 13-12. They have yet to play an opponent in the top 25. Texas, on the other hand, owns 2 victories over top 25 teams, and our opponents sport a combined record of 17-8.
This series has seen a number of classic games over the last 30 years or so. It has also seen a number of blowouts. Last year was one of those blowouts - 49-0 was the largest shutout suffered in Oklahoma football history. That came at the hands of Steve Sarkisian, Quinn Ewers, Bijan Robinson, and others as Texas dominated on both sides of the ball all day. Let’s not get it twisted - this year won’t be like that. That was a really bad Oklahoma defense, and they didn’t even really try to throw the ball offensively, instead resorting to a wildcat triple option for the vast majority of the game. This will be a much better offensive effort from the Sooners, and they’ve significantly improved defensively as well.
But the Longhorns are also much improved from a year ago. This is now a squad ranking in the top 20 in total offense and total defense, against a pretty darn good group of opponents played. We have yet to see a game be decided by fewer than 10 points in all 5 of the wins. I can confidently say this is the best Texas team top to bottom that we have seen on the Forty Acres in the last 15 years. Look for this roster to showcase itself once again on Saturday.
Steve Sarkisian’s offenses have averaged 48.5 points vs. Oklahoma. Photo: Jeffrey McWhorter, Associated Press
Texas Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
Sark has put up 49 and 48 in the last 2 editions of this game. It’s safe to say he has come well prepared with an offensive game plan and gotten the players ready to go for this one. Considering Texas rolled up a school Big 12 record 661 yards of offense in the last game out, we’re coming in hot and we’ve only improved offensively over the course of the season. This is a team that can run the football - Jonathon Brooks ranks 3rd in rushing yards among FBS running backs. This is a team that can throw the football when needed - see 4th quarter, Tuscaloosa - it just hasn’t really needed to very often. I don’t remember a Texas team having this good of a balance offensively in a long time. This is also a team that takes care of the football. This Longhorns offense has only committed 2 turnovers this year - a fumble in garbage time vs. Wyoming by 4th string RB Jaydon Blue, and a Quinn Ewers INT thrown last week in a last minute drive attempt in the first half. Can we match the 49 points from last year? Likely not, but there is really only a question of when, not if, the offense gets rolling in this game.
Oklahoma’s defense has given up just 10.8 points per game this season, to the offensive juggernauts of Arkansas State, SMU, Tulsa, Cincinnati, and Iowa State. The Sooners have also forced 12 turnovers - good for 4th in the nation. They’re much improved, sure, but there’s a very strong argument that they haven’t really been tested yet. Last year, their defense hammered UTEP, Kent State, and Nebraska in similar fashion before getting exposed against Kansas State, TCU, and the Longhorns for an average of 48 points over those 3 games. This is a case where I will have to see it to believe it.
Advantage: Texas
Texas has not allowed more than 14 points in a game on 4 of 5 occasions. Photo: Bryan Terry, The Oklahoman
Texas Defense vs. Oklahoma Offense
The Longhorns’ defense put together another dominating performance over the Jayhawks last week - giving up just 14 points on a couple of long touchdown plays. Sure, they didn’t have to face Kansas starting QB Jalon Daniels, but you can only play what’s in front of you. It was the 3rd straight game they’d held the opponent to 14 points or less. One of the major strengths of this defense (of which there are many) is the rush defense, specifically on 3rd and short. Opponents have converted a little over 5% of 3rd down rushes - that’s 1st in the nation, and the next closest is 20%. Yeah, it’s been that good. All part of a defensive effort that has seen Texas’ largest deficit as just 7 - after the first drive of the Wyoming game.
The Oklahoma offense has been very difficult to stop this year, specifically their passing game. QB Dillon Gabriel ranks 8th in yards, 4th in TDs, and 4th in QBR. He’s been very efficient and productive, and has limited turnovers with only 2 INTs thrown. In terms of running game, the Sooners rank right about middle of the pack in FBS. Their leading rusher Marcus Major has only 199 yards, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry. In this rivalry, the winner at the line of scrimmage almost always comes out on top. I see Texas as certainly having the advantage in stopping the run - the weak point of the Sooners offense. If OU isn’t able to get a ground game going, I struggle to see a path to victory outside of a large number of turnovers forced.
Advantage: Texas
Brent Venables is now 11-7 as a head coach at Oklahoma. Photo: Unknown
Coaching
Steve Sarkisian’s play-calling has owned OU over the last 2 years. Now, he also sports the best defense he has had during his Longhorn tenure. Having won 7 of the past 8 games now as the head coach of Texas, Sark has been instilling a winning culture in Austin. He will have the Horns ready for a physical football game and a 4-quarter game, even if that might not be needed…
Brent Venables’ first season in Norman was nothing short of a disaster. At one point through 3 weeks of the season, the Sooners were ranked #6 nationally. They proceeded to lose 7 of the next 10 games as the wheels fell off and reality set in - Lincoln Riley was long gone. Call it a turnaround if you want, but Oklahoma has cruised through its first 5 games so there hasn’t been a disastrous loss to this point in the season for Venables. He has a lot more to prove as a head coach, especially in this game. At many times in the 49-0 romp last year, it felt like Venables had given up on the game and his team. There will be motivation to be had for sure in the Oklahoma locker room after facing the music for 365 days, but it remains to be seen whether that will even matter.
Advantage: Texas
Prediction
I personally don’t understand the narrative that’s going around about how OU is suddenly this great football team and they are going to come into this game and upset Texas. That’s becoming a very trendy pick this week among national media and other outlets. Frankly, I just don’t see it. Everyone is talking about how you can “throw the records out” for this rivalry. See the thing is, in many of the instances people are thinking of, OU was a heavy favorite and played down to Texas’ level, or the Horns displayed their actual talent to make it a close game or pull off the upset. I struggle to find a game in this series the last 25 years or so where Texas failed as the favorite. The Horns are the better football team, and will prove it once again on Saturday in Dallas.
Texas 38, Oklahoma 20
Hook ‘em - OU still sucks.
