Baylor Game Preview
Baylor comes in desperate with a 1-2 record on the season. Photo: Baylor Lariat
Outlook
Big 12 conference play has arrived - the fourth game of the season for the Longhorns. Texas meets Baylor in Waco at 6:30pm on Saturday night. The game will be televised on ABC.
The Horns are 3-0 entering this game, coming off a 31-10 victory over Wyoming last week in which they looked shaky offensively until an explosion in the final quarter. Fans will have come away feeling encouraged by the finish but will no doubt be left with concerns over failing to put away an overmatched albeit tough Wyoming squad until late.
Baylor comes into their 4th consecutive home game to start the year having beaten Long Island last week in a game featuring a lengthy weather delay, ultimately prevailing 30-7. In last year’s matchup between these two teams, Texas came away with a 38-27 victory in Austin after being behind in the 4th quarter. Baylor won the last meeting in Waco 31-24, a game our Horns led entering the 4th quarter. It should be noted that was a 7-1 Baylor team after the game, and one that went on to win a Big 12 title. This year’s Bears team has gotten off to a much worse start, starting with a 1-2 record with its lone win coming over an 0-3 FCS program in LIU.
While Baylor has yet to leave its friendly confines of McLane Stadium this season, Texas already owns a win in perhaps the toughest place to win as a road team - 34-24 over Alabama. The Longhorns are battle-tested on the road in a hostile environment, so they can at least draw on the experience from that game. This is going to be a blackout game for the Bears, and is sure to be a raucous atmosphere as they get one final crack at our Longhorns at their home.
Will Texas go for another Big Man Tuddy this week? Photo: Scott Wachter, USA Today
Texas Offense vs. Baylor Defense
The Texas offense will be coming in with something to prove, having struggled through three quarters vs. Wyoming particularly with the passing game. Eventually getting going on a strike to quickster Xavier Worthy, there were no completions of the deep ball for the second time in three games. The Longhorns will need to continue to protect the passer as well as they have, ranking near tops in the nation in pass blocking. Baylor will try to get after the QB with their linebackers, and Texas can ill afford the types of plays we saw last year with huge sacks on Quinn Ewers leading to turnovers and defensive scores. Keeping Ewers clean and upright will be key. I’m confident Sark will come out with a better game plan to mix in the run and pass and help get Quinn in a rhythm early with short passes before setting up the play-action down the field. Speaking of the run, Texas is expected to have a healthy CJ Baxter for this game, and his play should complement that of Jonathon Brooks to create a dynamic one-two punch for this Horns backfield. We have yet to see the two of them be able to play a full game together and I’m excited to see this offense utilize their skillsets on the ground to set up the throw game.
If you’re looking for a strength of the Baylor defense, it’s in their secondary, as the Bears are giving up only 163 passing yards per game this year - good for 19th in the nation. That’s not particularly encouraging for a Longhorns passing attack that has struggled to get going against teams not named Alabama. Yeah, its been a bizarre year already. However, the Bears are very weak in run defense this year, ranking around 100th in FBS in rush yards allowed per game. Look for both Brooks and Baxter to eat - could we see the first game this year with multiple 100-yard rushers for Texas? Here’s hoping.
Advantage: Texas
The Texas defense has come up big in timely moments this season, especially in the 4th quarter. Photo: Mikala Compton, Austin American-Statesman
Texas Defense vs. Baylor Offense
The Texas defense continues to shine thus far in the 2023 campaign under Pete Kwiatkowski. And the production has come from a variety of players as well. Boy, is this unit deep at every position. We’ve already seen big time playmaking and contributions from Jaylan Ford, Ethan Burke, Anthony Hill, Jahdae Barron, Byron Murphy and others - the list goes on. Not to mention Jerrin Thompson is developing into a bit of a closer with a couple of late interceptions in each of the last two games. They have set the standard, now the question will be if the Horns’ defense can keep that up throughout conference play - and I believe they will.
Baylor’s offense is…struggling, to put it mildly. Unfortunately for the Bears, they lost starting quarterback Blake Shapen in their opening loss to Texas State, and he has been unable to return up to this point. With backup Sawyer Robertson (where does football get these names, seriously? Football remains undefeated) thrust into duty, they’ve scored 13 points against Utah and managed 30 in their lone win over Long Island. Robertson is completing just 45 percent of his passes for 1 TD and 3 INTs in three games played. Yikes. Even the run game is floundering, as the Bears average just 4.6 yards per carry on the ground. Good luck against the Longhorns’ front seven. The Texas pass rush and secondary should be looking to feast once again, as they have on their first three opponents this season.
Advantage: Texas
Since winning the Big 12 championship two years ago, Dave Aranda has gone 7-9 with Baylor. Photo: Orlin Wagner, Associated Press
Wack Factor
Okay Texas, it’s Wacky Waco for the last time. Not only is Baylor welcoming the Longhorns to their home stadium for the final meeting with Texas, it’s a sold out night game and a blackout game for them. They’re pulling out all the stops to try and give the Horns a crushing blow on our way out of the conference.
Baylor has won 4 of the last 6 contests in Waco. This has become a bit of a house of horrors for Texas fans ever since Robert Griffin III’s Heisman season. However, many of those losses were in down years for the Horns or against very good Baylor teams. This year is quite the opposite, with Texas coming in as the highly ranked #3 team in the nation and Baylor sporting a lowly 1-2 record. A loss in this one would be hard to stomach for the burnt orange and white as there would be devastating scenes of celebration and endless taunting from the other side. But don’t count on it. This is a year in which all of the Xs and Os of the game favor the Longhorns, heavily - and really the only thing the Bears will have going for them is what I’m calling the Wack Factor.
Advantage: Baylor
Prediction
This is not the Baylor we have seen in previous years at McLane Stadium. This is simply not a good football team with a young quarterback who isn’t ready for the challenge. The crowd may give the Bears some early energy but Texas should win comfortably. Leave no doubt.
Texas 38, Baylor 17
Hook ‘em
